A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
